{
  "schema": "kairos-decision-brief/v1",
  "subject": "Payment Recovery",
  "audience": "Kairos team",
  "as_of": "2026-09-01",
  "status": "certified-current-classification",
  "classification": "NESTED",
  "classification_confidence": "high",
  "reopen_probability": "unknown",
  "decision": "Payment Recovery has not earned a standalone opportunity slot. Retained-subscription value belongs inside Customer Retention and only for an unmeasured intent-positive technical-failure cohort.",
  "eligible_value_test": [
    "The customer intended to continue.",
    "A source-owned payment, subscription, activation or entitlement failure broke continuity.",
    "A specific action creates incremental durable net value above current practice."
  ],
  "outside_retention": "False declines, retry cost, routing, fraud, risk and payment or entitlement state integrity may create value without proof of renewal intent, but they have no accepted standalone denominator, economics or accountable owner.",
  "production_authority": "none",
  "production_block": [
    "More retries",
    "Gateway routing changes",
    "Blanket do-not-retry suppression",
    "New recovery communications",
    "Value booking"
  ],
  "headline_evidence": {
    "recurring_first_failure_share": {"july": 0.5129, "august": 0.5054},
    "observed_recovery_share": "approximately 18 to 20 percent at observed cutoffs",
    "attempts_per_failing_invoice": "approximately 6",
    "right_censored_unrecovered_invoice_face_usd": {"july": 19150.50, "august": 16475.98},
    "later_attempts": 64080,
    "observed_recoveries_across_advice_classes": 2318,
    "later_attempts_per_recovery": 27.6,
    "confirm_card_data_zero_haircut_proxy_ceiling_usd_per_month": 196,
    "matched_recovered_cycles_later_churned_share": 0.315
  },
  "coverage": {
    "registered_rooms_dispositioned": 13,
    "shadow_rooms_dispositioned": 15,
    "warehouse_objects_dispositioned": 505,
    "material_rescue_cases_in_current_corpus_checked": true,
    "content_exhaustion_claimed": false,
    "uninspected_or_uncommissioned_bodies_remain": true
  },
  "known_reversal_evidence": [
    "Identity and value join",
    "Affirmative continuation intent and source-owned cause",
    "Current retry and rail configuration",
    "Full finance and cost terms",
    "Incremental durable customer outcome",
    "Adjacent payment-operations value",
    "Cross-rail failed-obligation denominator"
  ],
  "reopen_toward_standalone_if": [
    "A material intent-positive technical-failure cohort has a distinct action system and durable net value.",
    "A separate material payment-operations value pool clears its own denominator, economics, mechanism, ownership and non-double-counting tests."
  ],
  "downgrade_toward_kill_if": "No material willing-to-continue cohort survives and failures concentrate in acquisition or uncontrollable rails.",
  "sources": [
    {"label": "Payment Recovery category red team", "date": "2026-09-01", "sha256": "baea566007bc4db8acb26a35a85e22cb19b412b20931b2e4821ff721af805498"},
    {"label": "All-room evidence receipt", "date": "2026-09-01", "sha256": "9bffdc2fea292e1367db2aa30e7d1dadb0d549d2225bc77cfc8c188a66ee8a69"},
    {"label": "Live BigQuery evidence receipt", "date": "2026-09-01", "sha256": "b7706410539cad33320cf0c079829eb75aeec135d879d47d69b9796ca21e0d56"},
    {"label": "Terminal certification", "date": "2026-09-01", "classification": "NESTED", "opposing_verification": "PASS"}
  ]
}