{
  "schema": "kairos-business-health/v1",
  "as_of": "2026-08-11",
  "privacy": "gated Kairos War Room; aggregate business and billing evidence only",
  "scoring_contract": "distance from transparent operating triage gates; not an industry percentile",
  "internal_snapshot": {
    "published_values": 3,
    "payment_cutoff_utc": "2026-08-11T09:14:31Z",
    "payment_funnel": {
      "july_recurring_invoices": 2979,
      "recurring_first_failure_invoices": 1528,
      "recurring_first_failure_rate_pct": 51.3,
      "recurring_radar_blocked": 17,
      "recurring_first_failure_ex_radar_pct": 50.7,
      "later_succeeded": 275,
      "unrecovered_at_cutoff": 1253,
      "recovery_rate_by_invoice_count_pct": 18.0,
      "unrecovered_renewal_value_usd": 19177,
      "opportunity_status": "hypothesis only; remove subscriptions cancelled before renewal before sizing recoverable involuntary churn",
      "failed_attempts": 10733,
      "affected_invoices": 3694,
      "failed_attempts_per_affected_invoice": 2.91,
      "maximum_failed_attempts_per_invoice": 10
    },
    "retry_policy": {
      "reason": "previously_declined_do_not_retry",
      "historical_first_failures": 1280,
      "retried_anyway": 672,
      "additional_failed_attempts": 4414,
      "eventually_succeeded": 12,
      "eventually_succeeded_rate_pct": 0.9,
      "july_first_with_reason": 78,
      "july_retried": 67,
      "july_additional_attempts": 478,
      "july_recovered": 0
    }
  },
  "metrics": [
    {
      "id": "first-failure",
      "name": "First-attempt recurring failure",
      "short_name": "First-attempt failure",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "lower",
      "mn_value": 51.3,
      "mn_state": "warehouse-derived; working tier",
      "definition_locked": true,
      "provisional": true,
      "definition": "Unique recurring invoices failing their first payment attempt divided by all recurring invoices attempted in the same cohort and period.",
      "mismatch": "July renewal invoices are definition-matched at 51.3%; excluding 17 intentional Radar blocks gives 50.7%. Stripe's 9% guide is cross-industry and does not expose a VPN-matched cohort, so the underperformance is directional, not a VPN percentile.",
      "reference": "Stripe's payment-method guide reported 9% of subscription invoices failing on the first attempt.",
      "gate": {"good": 10, "fail": 15, "critical": 25},
      "evidence_class": "platform benchmark",
      "source_ids": ["stripe-failure", "stripe-definitions"]
    },
    {
      "id": "recovery",
      "name": "Recovery of initially failed cohort",
      "short_name": "Failed-payment recovery",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "higher",
      "mn_value": 18.0,
      "mn_state": "warehouse-derived; working tier",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": true,
      "definition": "Initially failed recurring-payment cohort later recovered within a declared window.",
      "mismatch": "MN is renewal-invoice count; Stripe's 57% reference is recovered recurring-payment volume. Remove subscriptions cancelled before renewal before treating the unrecovered cohort as involuntary churn; direction is comparable, magnitude is not like-for-like.",
      "reference": "Stripe says Smart Retries recover 57% of initially failed recurring payments on average.",
      "gate": {"good": 57, "fail": 35, "critical": 20},
      "evidence_class": "platform benchmark",
      "source_ids": ["stripe-recovery", "stripe-definitions", "mn-database"]
    },
    {
      "id": "net-unrecovered",
      "name": "Net unrecovered recurring invoices",
      "short_name": "Net unrecovered",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "lower",
      "mn_value": null,
      "mn_state": "missing",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": false,
      "definition": "All unique recurring invoices still unpaid after a fixed recovery window divided by all recurring invoices attempted.",
      "mismatch": "The current 82.0% unrecovered figure is inside the failed-renewal cohort, not all recurring invoices. It cannot populate this metric.",
      "reference": "Nine percent initially failed × 43% unrecovered implies roughly 3.9% of all recurring invoices, as a derived orientation point.",
      "gate": {"good": 5, "fail": 10, "critical": 20},
      "evidence_class": "derived gate",
      "source_ids": ["stripe-failure", "stripe-recovery"]
    },
    {
      "id": "refund-rate",
      "name": "Refund rate",
      "short_name": "Refund rate",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "lower",
      "mn_value": null,
      "mn_state": "missing",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": false,
      "definition": "Refunded transactions or refunded revenue divided by the matched gross transaction or revenue cohort.",
      "mismatch": "Choose transaction count or revenue and keep it constant across product, geography, plan and acquisition cohorts.",
      "reference": "RevenueCat's category medians mostly cluster around 3–4%; high-refund outliers reach roughly 9–18%.",
      "gate": {"good": 4, "fail": 8, "critical": 12},
      "evidence_class": "subscription-app benchmark",
      "source_ids": ["revenuecat-2026"]
    },
    {
      "id": "payback",
      "name": "Paid-acquisition cash payback",
      "short_name": "CAC payback",
      "unit": "mo",
      "direction": "lower",
      "mn_value": null,
      "mn_state": "missing",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": false,
      "definition": "Months for cumulative contribution cash from an acquired cohort to repay fully loaded customer-acquisition cost.",
      "mismatch": "Revenue payback is not cash payback. Deduct refunds, payment leakage, variable service cost, support and processing fees.",
      "reference": "Kape reported a target return on investment below twelve months for customer acquisition.",
      "gate": {"good": 12, "fail": 18, "critical": 24},
      "evidence_class": "VPN operator anchor",
      "source_ids": ["kape-2021"]
    },
    {
      "id": "six-month-retention",
      "name": "Six-month monthly-plan retention",
      "short_name": "Six-month retention",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "higher",
      "mn_value": null,
      "mn_state": "missing",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": false,
      "definition": "Original monthly-plan subscriber cohort still active six months after its first paid start.",
      "mismatch": "Do not substitute annual-plan renewals, blended active users or revenue retention.",
      "reference": "RevenueCat reports 14–26% median and 30–50% top-quartile six-month retention for monthly plans.",
      "gate": {"good": 30, "fail": 14, "critical": 8},
      "evidence_class": "subscription-app benchmark",
      "source_ids": ["revenuecat-2026"]
    },
    {
      "id": "annual-retention",
      "name": "Annual direct-customer retention",
      "short_name": "Annual retention",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "higher",
      "mn_value": null,
      "mn_state": "missing",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": false,
      "definition": "Direct customers retained across a defined one-year period, using a consistent logo-cohort method.",
      "mismatch": "Gen is a mature multi-product cyber-safety portfolio. This is an operator anchor, not a VPN-only percentile.",
      "reference": "Gen reported 78% annual direct-customer retention in FY2025.",
      "gate": {"good": 78, "fail": 60, "critical": 45},
      "evidence_class": "security operator anchor",
      "source_ids": ["gen-2025"]
    },
    {
      "id": "recurring-share",
      "name": "Recurring revenue share",
      "short_name": "Recurring revenue share",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "higher",
      "mn_value": 58.3,
      "mn_state": "all-hands-derived",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": true,
      "definition": "Recurring revenue divided by total revenue for the same entity perimeter and recognition period.",
      "mismatch": "MN's 58.3% is $168k divided by $288k from the July all-hands. Product perimeter, accounting basis and overlap with 'new revenue' remain unresolved.",
      "reference": "Kape reported 86.8% recurring revenue in 2022 and 92% in 2021.",
      "gate": {"good": 87, "fail": 75, "critical": 60},
      "evidence_class": "VPN operator anchor",
      "source_ids": ["kape-2022", "kape-2021", "mn-allhands"]
    },
    {
      "id": "ebitda-margin",
      "name": "Adjusted EBITDA margin",
      "short_name": "EBITDA margin",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "higher",
      "mn_value": null,
      "mn_state": "missing",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": false,
      "definition": "Adjusted EBITDA divided by revenue for a reconciled entity perimeter and adjustment policy.",
      "mismatch": "A monthly burn number cannot substitute. MN needs an entity-scoped P&L and a stable adjustment definition.",
      "reference": "Kape reported 28.2% pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin in 2022 and 33.8% in 2021.",
      "gate": {"good": 28, "fail": 15, "critical": 5},
      "evidence_class": "VPN operator anchor",
      "source_ids": ["kape-2022", "kape-2021"]
    },
    {
      "id": "cash-conversion",
      "name": "Cash conversion",
      "short_name": "Cash conversion",
      "unit": "%",
      "direction": "higher",
      "mn_value": null,
      "mn_state": "missing",
      "definition_locked": false,
      "provisional": false,
      "definition": "Operating cash flow conversion using the same EBITDA basis and period.",
      "mismatch": "Do not compare cash in bank, treasury value or free-cash-flow anecdotes to operating cash conversion.",
      "reference": "Kape reported 94% cash conversion in 2022.",
      "gate": {"good": 90, "fail": 70, "critical": 50},
      "evidence_class": "VPN operator anchor",
      "source_ids": ["kape-2022"]
    }
  ],
  "unscored_metrics": [
    {
      "name": "Subscriber churn",
      "known_signal": "VPN recurring revenue recovered to May level; the prior −10.2% month-on-month decline is one earlier observation, not a trajectory.",
      "required": "Monthly and annual plan cohorts; voluntary versus involuntary churn; logo versus revenue churn; 12-month series.",
      "next_reference": "Use Stripe's private benchmark cohort or matched RevenueCat retention cohorts."
    },
    {
      "name": "LTV and LTV:CAC",
      "known_signal": "The all-hands says actual LTV is below target; neither value nor formula was shown.",
      "required": "Economic LTV after refunds, payment leakage, variable network cost, support and contribution margin; fully loaded CAC by channel.",
      "next_reference": "No credible public VPN-specific band found. Compare cohorts internally after the formula is locked."
    },
    {
      "name": "ARPU and MRR growth",
      "known_signal": "July recurring revenue was reported at $168k, up from $157k (+7.0%); product and entity split remain absent.",
      "required": "Paid subscribers, plan mix, currencies, taxes, refunds, reactivations and product perimeter.",
      "next_reference": "Gen's FY2025 direct-customer ARPU was $7.26/month; use only as a company anchor. Stripe can benchmark ARPU and MRR growth privately."
    }
  ],
  "definition_locks": [
    {"name": "Failure grain", "state": "locked", "question": "Unique recurring invoices, unique customers, or payment attempts?", "why": "Locked to one first attempt per recurring invoice; the familiar 75% is attempt-grain and is excluded."},
    {"name": "Eligible denominator", "state": "locked", "question": "All recurring invoices attempted, or every checkout and retry?", "why": "Locked to 2,979 July renewal invoices; 3,316 new-checkout invoices are separated as acquisition."},
    {"name": "Recovery window", "state": "open", "question": "Seven, fourteen, thirty days, or mature cohort?", "why": "An unfinished dunning window understates recovery."},
    {"name": "Count versus volume", "state": "open", "question": "Invoice count or payment value?", "why": "Stripe's public recovery anchor is payment volume; MN's current 18.0% is renewal-invoice count."},
    {"name": "Product perimeter", "state": "open", "question": "VPN only, all consumer products, or company total?", "why": "Portfolio mix can make a healthy product hide a failing one."},
    {"name": "Churn cause", "state": "open", "question": "Voluntary cancellation, involuntary payment loss, refund, or fraud?", "why": "Each failure class has a different owner and remedy."},
    {"name": "Economic contribution", "state": "open", "question": "Revenue, gross margin, or retained contribution after CAC?", "why": "Revenue can grow while unit economics deteriorate."},
    {"name": "Evidence cutoff", "state": "locked", "question": "Which dated snapshot produced the metric?", "why": "The payment cohort is currently cut at 11 Aug 2026 09:14:31 UTC."}
  ],
  "sources": [
    {"id": "stripe-failure", "publisher": "Stripe", "title": "Payment methods guide", "date": "public guide; retrieved 2026-08-11", "claim": "Nine percent of subscription invoices failed on the first attempt.", "url": "https://stripe.com/files/payments/guide/Payment-methods-guide.pdf", "kind": "first-party platform guide"},
    {"id": "stripe-recovery", "publisher": "Stripe", "title": "Billing features · Smart Retries", "date": "retrieved 2026-08-11", "claim": "Smart Retries recover 57% of initially failed recurring payments on average.", "url": "https://stripe.com/billing/features", "kind": "first-party platform product evidence"},
    {"id": "stripe-definitions", "publisher": "Stripe", "title": "Revenue recovery analytics definitions", "date": "retrieved 2026-08-11", "claim": "Defines failed recurring payment volume and recovered volume.", "url": "https://docs.stripe.com/billing/revenue-recovery/recovery-analytics", "kind": "official documentation"},
    {"id": "stripe-peers", "publisher": "Stripe", "title": "Subscription benchmarking", "date": "retrieved 2026-08-11", "claim": "Private benchmarks use at least 100 similar peers selected by industry and business profile.", "url": "https://docs.stripe.com/billing/subscriptions/analytics/benchmarking", "kind": "official documentation"},
    {"id": "revenuecat-2026", "publisher": "RevenueCat", "title": "State of Subscription Apps 2026 · Utilities", "date": "2026", "claim": "115k+ apps and $16b dataset; retention and refund distributions used here.", "url": "https://www.revenuecat.com/state-of-subscription-apps-2026-utilities", "kind": "large subscription-app benchmark"},
    {"id": "kape-2021", "publisher": "Kape Technologies", "title": "Annual Report 2021", "date": "2021", "claim": "81% six-month measured retention, 92% recurring revenue, 33.8% pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin and sub-12-month acquisition ROI target.", "url": "https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReports/PDF/LSE_KAPE_2021.pdf", "kind": "public VPN operator filing"},
    {"id": "kape-2022", "publisher": "Kape Technologies", "title": "Final Results 2022", "date": "2022", "claim": "7.4m subscribers, 86.8% recurring revenue, 28.2% pro forma EBITDA margin and 94% cash conversion.", "url": "https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/kape-technologies--kape/final-results/7479849", "kind": "public VPN operator results"},
    {"id": "gen-2025", "publisher": "Gen Digital", "title": "FY2025 Form 10-K", "date": "2025", "claim": "78% annual direct-customer retention and $7.26 monthly ARPU.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/849399/000084939925000033/gen-20250328.htm", "kind": "SEC filing"},
    {"id": "mn-allhands", "publisher": "MN · internal", "title": "All-Hands Evidence Audit · 7 Aug 2026", "date": "2026-08-07", "claim": "$288k total and $168k recurring revenue; 58.3% is a derived orientation ratio with unresolved perimeter.", "url": "../all-hands-2026-08-07/", "kind": "gated internal aggregate evidence"},
    {"id": "mn-database", "publisher": "Kairos · internal", "title": "Database Integrity and Fraud-Risk Assessment", "date": "2026-08-11 · section G correction incorporated", "claim": "The 75% attempt-grain headline is superseded by the July renewal-invoice cohort: 51.3% first-failure, 18.0% later recovery and $19,177 unpaid renewal value before cancellation cleanup.", "url": "../notes/kairos-database-integrity-and-fraud-risk-assessment-2026-08-11.html", "kind": "gated cross-validated warehouse assessment · working tier"}
  ]
}